To our fellow Lebanese

 

 

This article is addressed to you from your brothers and sisters from around the world. We, the Lebanese abroad, have a very strong voice and we are taking action. You are not alone because the tragic events taking place in our beloved country have united us globally. The murder of our leaders, fathers, brothers and sisters are bring us closer together.

 

Our group, Al Moghtarebeen is planning to gather this summer in Beirut to show support for our people in Lebanon and to show the world that the millions of Lebanese abroad will not stand by watching all the tragedies unfold. We plan to travel in large numbers from different parts of the world to be there in Beirut and show everyone that we, the Lebanese, Muslim and Christians, are united in the name of our country Lebanon.

 

We need the support of groups and organizations in Lebanon and around the world to make this event an unparalleled success and show the world who we are. We are a young group, born after the murder of Mr. Hariri and kept growing with the successive murders, the most recent of which was that of Mr. Tueni.

 

To all Lebanese groups, to An-Nahar and all media, ministries, embassies, universities, to Mr. Saniora, Mr. Jumblat, Mr. Berri, M. Hariri, M. Michel Aoun, Mrs. Setrida Geagea, M. Mohammad Fneich, and all Lebanese around the world, let us unite and work together to show the world that we are one.  

 

Contact us at www.moghtarebeen.com – let us work together in support of Lebanon

 

 

Established in 2005 in the United States, Lebanon Expats and Moghtarebeen.com are the voice of Lebanese scholars, businessmen and professionals living abroad. Their mission is to promote the powerful presence of the Lebanese abroad by carrying on social activities that will improve standards of living, and economical activities that will create job opportunities in Lebanon.

 

In March this year, the group sent a giant Lebanese Flag around the world to obtain signatures from Lebanese living abroad, the flag  toured the USA, Canada, Brazil, United Arab Emirates, France and Lebanon.

 

It is about a country that bribes journalist, torture political prisoners, taps its citizens' phone lines, and hire only friends to key governmental positions.

By the way it is not China, nor Syria or Egypt or Iran or KSA. (Answer is below photo)

Answer: (The leader of the free world: USA!)

(Photo from http://www.netguruindia.com/oncampus/brain-teaser.gif)

 

 

In a very interesting comment, MP Michel Aoun compares the government to a  business model: a company that is exploiting its employees, playing monopoly, and all it cares about is the short term profits for the individuals that are governing.

I can’t agree more with the “General”.

However, if we can be more careful with comparaison, a state can be simulated as a company:  

-         First the state has to be a "public" company and traded on the stock market. If a government acts like a private company, this government is nothing but a dictatorship and corrupt (hence the simulaion of the General)

-         The board of trustees is nothing but the parliament.

-         The executive board is the government, who often reports to the board of trustees about strategic plans and future tactics.

-         The government employees are similar to the employees of teh comapny.

-         The shareholders are the citizens.

With these similarities, accountability, an inexistent word in the Lebanese politics dictionary, is guaranteed. If the executive board fails to insure profitability, the board of trustees should kick them out. If the latter fails to do so, the shareholders won’t elect them in their annual meeting (election day). For the executive board to succeed, all of its employees should perform. Failure to do so will put the CEO (prime minister) at risk of keeping his (or her) job.

If everything works fine, the shareholder will see an appreciation in their shares’ value and the whole country will advance.

One might argue that metrics are clear in a company whether the CEO is doing a fine job or not. In politics things are often grey. In my opinion, this theory is flat wrong. In politics, metrics of government performance are crystal clear.

What shareholders or citizens in this case need to check is the following:

 

-    Security: is the country safe, what is the level of crimes?

-     GDP growth

-         Unemployment rate, or the number of new jobs created every month

-         The social benefits

-         The level of poverty

-         The deficit

-         The purchasing power, or what percent of the wage can be put aside at eh end of the month

Doing the numbers of all the above, the shareholders can decide whether to keep the board of trustees (the parliament) in business or not.

I can’t deny that this is an ideal situation that works in a country that has minimum of religious influence, but our only hope to succeed in building a decent country is to think as a shareholders whose main concern is to see their shares appreciating.

(Next article will be on governmental marketing strategies for its citizens and foreign investors)

 

I often wondered why General Norman Schwarzkopf in 1991 was not given the green light to finish up Saddam Hussein. It was an easy goal to achieve and would have cost much less than now. Surprisingly, Saddam’s enemies wanted him to stay alive: Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey. The Saudis at the time objected the fall of Saddam because they feared of Shiite dominance getting closer to their borders. Jordan joined the Saudi Kingdom for the same reasons. Turkey had different worries about the fall of Saddam: the Kurds ambition for an independent state. These reasons never changed in 2003, and the three countries opposed the invasion once again.

The striking differences between the 1991 and 2003 invasions is that the opposition list grew longer: France, Russia, Germany, Egypt were added.

If the US went with such long list of opposition and after almost three years of the invasion, a question on my mind: who is really against the success of the US in Iraq?

 

Let us make the list (which is divided in three categories):

 

Definitely AGAINST the US success:

The insurgent: no explanation needed of why they are against the US success.

Syria: US success is a direct threat to the ruling regime. A success means that this adventure can be repeated in Syria and that is not good news to Mr. Assad’s regime

Turkey: Success in Iraq, although it backs its democracy, will definitely give the Kurds more political entity and this is totally against Turkey’s strategy of oppressing the Kurds.

Israel: It has always been Israel’s strategy to keep the Arabs busy with their own problems. This will diverge their focus from Israel and keep the Arabs divided and weak. (I can safely argue that a democratic Middle East is not of Israel’s benefit but this would require a whole new article).

 

Definitely FOR teh US success:

The Local Iraqi government, the Shiites and the Kurds: again no need for explanation

UK, Italy, Australia and Co.: these countries were involved in this war without the support of their own people, a success will prove that the corresponding leaders were right.

Lebanon: this might be a surprise to some, but failure of the US mission in Iraq means victory of Syria’s dictatorship: Lebanon’s first enemy. Besides, Lebanon is trying to fine-tune its democratic system; another friendly neighboring democracy can only help.

 

Definitely for a WEAK US success: (Here, the list is long)

Saudi Arabia: a failure will bring destabilization to the region; however, a clear success brings threat to the kingdom that is based on “anti-democratic” system.

Egypt: same as Saudi Arabia, but on top of that, a weak success guarantees the need of Mr. Moubarak to mediate from time to time. This is exactly what happened last week in Cairo where the Iraqis met and had some agreement.

France, Germany, Russia, China: a bright success means a more stubborn and arrogant US policy in the world. A complete failure will put the whole world at the mercy of Bin Laden’s followers. Also, it is a giant set-back for democracy that, at least France and Germany, cherish.

Iran: this also might be a surprise. The Iranians are interested in weak victory and not defeat of the Americans because such success will put the Shiites in control. Their long term strategy would be to ask for US withdrawal after the Shiite are in control. Later they will use their moral influence to stir the Iraqi government as they wish. Ironically, according to this scenario, the US would have done the dirty job for the Iranians who are able to achieve the targets of the 1980’s war with Saddam without spilling one drop of blood. On the other hand, a blunt US victory is a threat to their regime and will weaken the ruling hardliners.

 

Ironically, just like Saddam Hussein’s survival was achieved by his enemies in 1991, the “weak” success of the US can only be achieved, in my opinion, by the help of the US enemies. I don’t foresee a US defeat at all, as for the “Blunt” success; I will leave it to Mr. Bush speeches, which will remain words lacking reality.

It has been almost 5 months since the end of the elections in Lebanon. While the electoral law was pathetic, the election was a big step because it had a basic lesson to give about how elections should be ran.

It shows that everybody adapted tactical alliance to win seats. EVERYBODY, with no exception and here is a list:

-         Lebanese Forces with Jumblatt.

-         Jumblatt with Hizballah.

-         Hizballah with Jumblatt (it was reciprocal).

-         Hariri with Amal and Hizballah in the south.

-         Free patriotic movement with Arslan.

-         Free patriotic movement with Franjieh, Murr and Karameh.

-         Kornet Chehwan with Future movement.

-         Kornet Chehwan with the miserable lectoral law that only serves Mouawad.

-         Amal with Hizballah in the south.

I apologize if I forgot the small players who also did the same.

So in general, many senseless tactical moves were made and ended with the current mosaic parliament.

Later, time came for strategy. Some winners went back to their strategic moves and some others are still failing to do so. The Free patriotic movement is one of the biggest winners in doing so. Their strategy so far is not only political fight but also economic and social. It is very similar of the one that Hizballah has been adopting since 1992.

On the other hand, the Lebanese Forces are loosing ground. Unlike the FPM, they were not successful to attract more people after elections. The reasons are simple. They are stuck with the election tactical moves. They want to show their constituency that their alliance during the elections are strategic but in fact they are not. They think that meeting with Walid Jumblatt and Saad el Hariri is strategic but again it is not. I struggle to find what is common between the three. The first one’s old agenda is to have confederation, (the current one is still unknown), the second one’s agenda is economic and finding the truth, the last one’s agenda is merely political survival as he, Jumblatt, sees less and less influence of the Druze in the Lebanese political life. 

Same problem facing the LF, is facing the Jumblatt movement. Its constituency cannot keep up with the wild moves that Walid Jumblatt is making. The only cement that is keeping them together is the fear of being marginalized by the other big religion entities.

On the scene also, another big loser: the Amal movement. I am not sure if their parliament seat number shrunk or not but it is obvious that Amal is at the mercy of Hizballah and not the other way around. Amal political power was largely based on Syria’s influence more than on its own people. Hizballah by contrast had both. Except for Berri’s victory in getting his job back, he is almost a ghost in the Lebanese political life. He is standing idle while watching Hizballah and Hariri’s movement eating his market shares in the south. What is more pathetic is that he is still trying to bank on “El Sader” disappearance. Hard to believe!

Finally, some think that it is a “unity” to see the LF working together with the Future movement and the Jumbaltt movement. Well it is not. The true unity is to see a Druze and a Sunni and a Shiite enrolled in the LF and some Christians enrolled in the Jumblatt movements and even Hizballah party. Only when we see this, the word “unity “ can be used. Until then, it is just tactical moves necessary for short victories. Change in the core of the respective movement’s core values is required to attract the others. So far, only one movement was partially successful in doing so: the FPM. We can see some Christian majority in that movement but we see considerable percentage form other religion confessions. The Future movement is second to the FPM in that respect, but time is needed to prove that because it is feared that it is an emotional support because of the terrible murder of Mr. Rafic Hariri.

An interesting  article at BBC.com taht details democratic progress in the MiddleEast. Lebanon came a ditant second after Israel. I think we are on the right track although our "to do list" is still long.

Thought I 'd share this article with you.

 

 

I was trying to follow closely the results of the student elections through out the Leabnese Universities and guess what? you can't figure out who won. It is funny and sad. Funny because in the AUB elections reminded me of "Ziad rahbani" play "Film Ameriki Tawil" where he proves that there is more than 100% in a 100%. Actually there is 160% in the Lebanese people. 80% they want the new Lebanon and 80% they don't want Lebanon. I guess it was Ziad's sataric way of saying that the Lebanese people are not honest. My hat's off to you Mr Rahbani, you are right again about our society.

 

While I was listening to Bashar Al Assad speech, I kept thinking that this can’t be true. I must be dreaming or did somebody switch the papers of the speech of Mr. Assad.

How can it be that a leader of 27 million human being is so naïve? How could it be that a leader facing serious consequences like embargo or sanctions go and play hardball in this childish manner? I did not see a president of a nation there, I saw a kid saying none sense words like he is going to play the “game”. Yes you are playing a game Mr. Assad, and now it is your turn to starve 27 million people like Saddam did. Or even worse, I saw a person telling lies about Arafat being assassinated. If you noticed nobody even reacted to this statement not even the Palestinians. So Mr. Assad if you really have a proof, please come forward, the Palestinian people would love to hear about it.  Then after, it comes the traditional trick: “the Arabic pride” when he said he won’t bow to pressure. Please don’t use this, the last time an Arab leader did not bow, his people suffered more than 25000 deaths, his country suffered foreign occupation, and he now lives in a prison. Enough dictators using pride that each person has to protect their regime.

One last comment about the speech, I wonder if your dad can hear it, would he approve, disapprove or just say my kid is till naïve!

I wanted to imagine what would be my feelings and thoughts every time I wear a different hat. So I started with where I live. I wore the American hat. Then I thought, there are many "American" hats. Here is what I came up with:

Republican Hat: I agree with Georges Bush policies when it comes to be tough on terrorists, tax reduction. But spending is out of control, so is the extreme right grasp on his decisions. What happened to moderate Republicans? I guess we don't exist anymore.

 

Democrat Hat: I hope that Georges W Bush dos not give speeches from now till end of his term. Thank god for our law that prevents a third term for the presidency. Where are the Democrat leaders? how come we don't have any inspiring one? Is boring John Kerry all what we have?

 

Cindy Sheehan hat: All what the American moms are going thru is nothing but the results of electing a War monger in the white house. Have I been a pro active mom, I would have started this campaign before my son died.

 

American Average Joe's hat: What is up with this oil price increase, I thought we went to war to bring the prices down. What about the budget deficit, the third highest level was in October? How come my government still increases spending and I can't?

 

Then I thought, I can't be 100% American. From time to time I need to wear my Lebanese hat:

Why are we still wasting time and not controlling the Palestinian arms? Why Hezbollah still has armed people in the streets? Is this a special attraction to Foreign Investments? Why Aoun is trying to align himself with lahoud (traitor number one. Yes there is numbering of traitors in my dictionary: Jumblatt is in the sixth position right after Berri, Karmeh, Franjieh, Nasrallah). Should I invest in Lebanon and my country is ranked 80th in the transparency level worldwide?

 

Then I thought, along the Lebanese Hat, I need to wear the Syrian one. After all, I have lots of Syrian friends: When do you think my government would start acting, as “we the Syrian people, are not alone in the world? When will my government join the 21st century and allow some freedom. We have enough smart people to have an open economic system. Does my government think it will survive with the governing 70's mentality? Does Bashar think that a police state is good for us, or evne for himself? Why don't we have good relationship with any foreign country except for Iran? Is everybody wrong, and just us the Syrians and the Iranians right?

I would like to think that the "Lebanese" media pushed Ghazi Kenaan to commit suicide, but does he think I am that naive? Does he think that I could believe that Ghazi Kenaan has such a sensitive feeling that he could not take the accusations of the Lebanese media? After all, Farouk el Sahri3 was cute when he issued that statement. Finally, I feel like imploring Bashar to bring Syria in the 21st Century. We need it so badly.

 

And since I was in this area of the world I thought I need to wear the Iraqi hat: My heart started beating faster. All I can think of is the Lebanese civil war. It started with a problem of the Palestinians but it took toll on all the country. I am afraid the same will happen in Iraq. It started with the unjust invasion of the US but it will end with a civil war that would take the whole country into total destruction. I wish I can tell all the Iraqis to learn from the Lebanese experience, and ALL are losers in a war. Nobody wins. It took the Lebanese 30 years to learn that. Should it take us that long?

 

Finally I thought an Arab hat can be a closure for my imagination:

Why am I not proud of being Arab? I don't deny being an Arab, but truth to be told, I am not so proud of it. We have every component to be the leaders of the world, yet we are miserably failing. We constitute the only part of the world where human rights are decreasing according to the UN. We have natural resources that many developed countries dream of, yet we don't use them to prosper, we use them to increase the misery of our people. When will my leaders wake up from illusions such as the one portrayed by Al-Jazeera? When will be back to be leaders as we were in the past?

 

My head is tired of these hats, that I tried to wear an Iranian one, then I thought: Thanks but no Thanks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Things are still going fast in Lebanon. Geagea will soon be out, Colonel Matar, Gerges Khoury, are already out.

The phalangist party can soon join its constituency (the real one). Everything that was done during the Syrian control era is being undone. Something to rejoice and feel hopeful. Lebanon now is on the right track. I hate to do this, but there should be red lines not to be crossed if we really want to learn from our mistakes:

- No return to war between Aoun and Geagea.

- No return to the idea of confederal governement, nor the idea of Islamic state.

- No more weapons in the street; whether it is with the palestinians or with hezbollah.

- No more "unbalanced" relationship with Syria.

 

If we look carefully at the above list, it is obvious that everyone who is in the governement or the parliement was trying to execute them. And now if they really learned their lessons, they have to make sure they don't. Is it possible? only time will tell.

 

Optimistic LEBANESE 

My brother is right. I have been lazy lately in not writing. But laziness is not the only excuse. What happened recently in Lebanon is not small events and did not happen at slow pace. It takes time to get the big picture of all these events. So here is my interpretation of the “Big Pictures”.

It is clear that the election law did not reflect the political map of the country in the parliament. How did the “anti-Syrian” coalition sponsor a “Syrian” law is beyond my brain power to understand. But despite all that, elections took place and I was pleased to see some faces go away. I just wished that some faces didn’t make it back especially the 150% Syrian: Berri.

This brings me to the second point: what is going on in Mr. Jumblatt’s mind. It is time for him to pay the price of the electoral deals he made to be able to win Baabda -3alay. He made a deal with Berri and Hezbollah, he won, now it is time to pay the price: Berri is back and Jumblatt is against 1559. Nice deal but high price. Not because I am for the 1559, but because Mr. Jumblatt is loosing credibility. How can people trust him again? A month ago, he was in the 1559 camp, now he is against it. This particular policy reminds me of people who made the same mistakes before once they thought they won: Bashir el Gemayel who turned his back on Israel once he was elected president and Rene Mouawad who did the same to Syria. Unfortunately both paid dearly. The point of difference this time, is that Jumblatt is not doing it himself. It is Hariri through Sanyoura who is doing it. The big question would be, will Hariri be able to withstand the pressure from the US and France who are loosing patience? The next issue is the economy: I will have another article about our economy but in brief, our economy cannot survive while corruption is embedded in the system, and Hezbollah keeping his arms. Will the Hariri coalition be able to deal with Hezbollah and convince him to become pure political party? Will Hariri be comfortable in opening some files about corruption? What if these files will get Mr. Jumblatt or some of his father’s friends in trouble?

One day I was driving when I heard on the radio station a comment from a journalist reporting from Lebanon saying that: “ If anybody claims he or she understands Lebanese politics, they should rest assured that it was not explained to them right”. What applies to this foreigner journalist applies to a great extent to all the Lebanese. I am trying to get the big pictures that keeps changing…

Beirut, Lebanon, Apr. 14 (UPI) -- The Lebanese army Thursday removed a statue of late Syrian President Hafez Assad at the entrance of the main port city of Tyre in south Lebanon.

The removal is part of a campaign to eliminate all of Assad's statues and memorials in the area that have been the targets of saboteurs opposed to Syria's presence in Lebanon.

Lebanon's leaders failed to form a Cabinet last night in a move that is certain to end any hope of the country's elections taking place next month. Following a five-hour meeting at the Presidential Palace, President Emile Lahoud, Prime Minister-designate Omar Karami and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri left the premises refusing to comment. |Full Story

Hizbullah flew an unmanned surveillance drone over northern Israel yesterday afternoon in a move that signals the resistance group's determination to continue to bring its war deep into Israel.|Full Story

The judicial investigators into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri are scheduled to question seven witnesses Tuesday regarding the February 14 blast.
The witnesses are relatives and friends of Palestinian Ahmed Abu Adas, who claimed responsibility for the assassination on behalf of a previously unknown group.|Full Story

Leading opposition member Walid Jumblatt reiterated his denial on Sunday that he was out of step with the opposition's unified policy and urged opposition factions to draw up a political program for Lebanon after the parliamentary elections take place.|Full Story

Sidon MP Bahia Hariri has announced that she will run in the upcoming parliamentary elections as an independent, and stressed the need to hold the elections on schedule. Hariri made the comments following a visit Monday to Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Qabbani in Dar al-Fatwa, where discussions focused on "national issues."|Full Story

President of the Kafaat movement and aspiring politician Ahmed Asaad harshly criticized government officials Monday for trying to hinder elections by postponing the formation of a new government.|Full Story

Calls to free imprisoned Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea were raised again Monday as a delegation of opposition MPs met with the Christian leader's wife, Strida, and stressed the importance of his release for completing national reconciliation.|Full Story

As the country commemorates the 30th anniversary of the 15-year civil war's outbreak, relatives of about 280 Lebanese citizens presumed missing or imprisoned in Syria started an open-ended hunger strike in front of the UN House in Beirut on Monday.|Full Story

In light of illegal work permits continuing to find their way into the hands of owners of rock and sand quarries in Zahle's Dahr al-Baidar, the Nature Without Borders association's president, Mahmoud Ahmadieh, once more urged President Emile Lahoud to take action without further delay.|Full Story