It has been almost 5 months since the end of the elections in Lebanon. While the electoral law was pathetic, the election was a big step because it had a basic lesson to give about how elections should be ran.

It shows that everybody adapted tactical alliance to win seats. EVERYBODY, with no exception and here is a list:

-         Lebanese Forces with Jumblatt.

-         Jumblatt with Hizballah.

-         Hizballah with Jumblatt (it was reciprocal).

-         Hariri with Amal and Hizballah in the south.

-         Free patriotic movement with Arslan.

-         Free patriotic movement with Franjieh, Murr and Karameh.

-         Kornet Chehwan with Future movement.

-         Kornet Chehwan with the miserable lectoral law that only serves Mouawad.

-         Amal with Hizballah in the south.

I apologize if I forgot the small players who also did the same.

So in general, many senseless tactical moves were made and ended with the current mosaic parliament.

Later, time came for strategy. Some winners went back to their strategic moves and some others are still failing to do so. The Free patriotic movement is one of the biggest winners in doing so. Their strategy so far is not only political fight but also economic and social. It is very similar of the one that Hizballah has been adopting since 1992.

On the other hand, the Lebanese Forces are loosing ground. Unlike the FPM, they were not successful to attract more people after elections. The reasons are simple. They are stuck with the election tactical moves. They want to show their constituency that their alliance during the elections are strategic but in fact they are not. They think that meeting with Walid Jumblatt and Saad el Hariri is strategic but again it is not. I struggle to find what is common between the three. The first one’s old agenda is to have confederation, (the current one is still unknown), the second one’s agenda is economic and finding the truth, the last one’s agenda is merely political survival as he, Jumblatt, sees less and less influence of the Druze in the Lebanese political life. 

Same problem facing the LF, is facing the Jumblatt movement. Its constituency cannot keep up with the wild moves that Walid Jumblatt is making. The only cement that is keeping them together is the fear of being marginalized by the other big religion entities.

On the scene also, another big loser: the Amal movement. I am not sure if their parliament seat number shrunk or not but it is obvious that Amal is at the mercy of Hizballah and not the other way around. Amal political power was largely based on Syria’s influence more than on its own people. Hizballah by contrast had both. Except for Berri’s victory in getting his job back, he is almost a ghost in the Lebanese political life. He is standing idle while watching Hizballah and Hariri’s movement eating his market shares in the south. What is more pathetic is that he is still trying to bank on “El Sader” disappearance. Hard to believe!